sino-US confronation and Kashmir Dispute

China, America and Kashmir
Don’t get caught up in the complexity of the ‘new cold war’
PUNCHLINE
Z.G. MUHAMMAD
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Is South Asia heading for a major war? This question has been making rounds in academic, diplomatic and political circle in Washington, Beijing and other important capitals of Asian countries. To quote New York Times, political commentator Roger Cohen, “This is the core question of the 21st Century.”
‘The collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991 had thrown into sharp relief the pre-eminence of the USA in the global hierarchy of power’ but the rise of China as a major economy is largely seen as a threat to this position more particularly in Asia. The war of supremacy between the two Titans is not now confined to most volatile South-Asian region alone but with areas of conflict having multiplied it has brought within its ambit entire Asia. In last week of April President, Obama visited four nations Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Philippines. He did not visit most China. All the countries that were on his itinerary are involved in territorial disputes with Beijing. In more than one way during his eight day tour of the region US President indicated that the tension between China and these countries could ‘draw United States in’. Talking about tension between Japan and China over the Senkaku Islands, President Obama declared “that Japan-administered rocks in East China fall within the scope of Article 5 of the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation”. President Obama, without making any bones about it, indicated that the US was going to be present in the region as and when need arsise. The statement provoked a sharp reaction from China.
Many an experts on Sino-US affairs hold the view that the relationship between the two ‘countries is tipping towards being more confrontational.’ Some see inevitably of war in Asia as China economic power grows. John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago in the new edition of his classic “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, as quoted by Cohen writes, “My argument in a nutshell is that if China continues to grow economically, it will attempt to dominate Asia the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. The United States, however, will go to enormous lengths to prevent China from achieving regional hegemony. Most of Beijing’s neighbors, including India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Russia and Vietnam, will join with the United States to contain Chinese power. The result will be an intense security competition with considerable potential for war.”
In this emerging scenario couple of question arise; with US troops withdrawing substantially from Afghanistan, where do the two key South-Asian players, India and Pakistan fit in. If th two countries with over six decades acrimonious baggage of estrangement, confrontation and disputes- Kashmir as the core issue are going to be sucked into confrontation between China and America that could even lead to a catastrophic war. There were times, when Americans loved to call Pakistan as “allied of allies” but this equation has considerably changed. Notwithstanding, US strategic expert like Bruce Riedel, stating that Pakistan is fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world, producing more weapons today, including tactical nuclear weapons, than any other country. It may soon have fourth largest nuclear arsenal in the world, outgunned only by the United States, Russia and China.’ The country has lost its coveted position in US policy towards the region. Despite “roller-coaster” relation with Washington for about five decades Pakistan was central to the United States’ South Asia policy- and it was known “US-India-Pakistan Policy.” George W Bush, US President ‘separated its India and Pakistan policies- a policy called dehyphenation- arguing that its relationship with each country should be on the basis of merit.’ India was pronounced as natural alliance of America.
Stephen Cohen sees US –Indian civil nuclear deal as “central Piece” to this new alliance. Nonetheless, numbers of political scientists of international acclaim from Prof. Hafeeez Malik to Hu Juan are unanimous in their views that ‘US wants to use India to contain China.’ Juan and couple of other scholars hold the view that military cooperation will be the pivot of the relation between the US and India. Pakistan has viewed this relationship with “alarm”, former foreign secretary of Pakistan Shamshad Ahmed recently wrote in a journal, “Pakistan’s problems are further aggravated by the complex regional configuration with growing Indo-US nexus, India’s strategic ascendency in the region and its unprecedented influence in Afghanistan with serious nuisance potential against Pakistan’s security interests and legitimate strategic stakes in the region.’
New Delhi and Washington entered into strategic partnership because of Pakistan leadership messing up the situation during the Kargil war. The nervous Pakistan leadership facilitated Bill Clinton brokering an agreement between India and Pakistan to his advantage. It been candidly documented by Prof. Hafeez Malik in his book “US Relations With Afghanistan and Pakistan” Bruce Riedel says, “doors opened in New Delhi to America that been shut for years’.
In ostensible confrontation between the US and China, it is a big question if India would be ready to become a vassal for Washington in containing in the Asian giant. China has its territorial disputes with India. It has been claiming whole of Arunachal Pradesh. For the first time after gaining independence, the countries fought almost a month long war at an altitude of 14000 feet in October 1962. Thereafter, despite some border clashes, no war was fought between the two countries. Juan holds the view that two countries will endeavor to strength their relations but “mistrust” will continue to be there. And India will not take risk of confronting its powerful neighbor despite US prodding. Such question will find an answer after new government in India comes up with a foreign policy document.
The confrontation between China and America, with Pakistan having sixty years ‘multi-dimensional strategic partnership’ with China and India having twenty years strategic partnership has the potential of pushing the two neighbors into a ‘cold-war’ like situation. It is high time for leadership of the two countries not to get caught up in the complexity of the ‘new cold war’ instead work for addressing the core disputes that continue to be major flashpoint in the region. .