{"id":1181,"date":"2012-09-24T08:24:34","date_gmt":"2012-09-24T02:54:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/?p=1181"},"modified":"2012-09-24T08:48:35","modified_gmt":"2012-09-24T03:18:35","slug":"future-of-pakistan-and-kashmir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/editors-take\/future-of-pakistan-and-kashmir\/","title":{"rendered":"Future of Pakistan and Kashmir"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/fb:like>

Authors and writers are not prophets.\u00a0 They do not \u2018speak from divine inspiration\u2019 or as \u2018authoritative persons who divine future.\u2019 \u00a0I do not see them even as Statesmen with great political vision, understanding and futuristic judgment.<\/p>\n

However,\u00a0 Scholarly writings and dispassionate studies whether tasteful or distasteful, critical or appreciative, help in understanding complex political situations, resolving intricate political disputes and coercing nations into introspection. One such work that recently caught my imagination has been, \u2018The future of Pakistan\u2019, by Stephen P Cohen and others, published by Oxford University Press, India. 2012\u00a0 In his preface to the book Stephen Cohen writes that, the book has \u2018stemmed from a project that examined Pakistan\u2019s medium term- future, roughly defined as next five to seven years (2011-17). The book comprises fourteen essays presented at workshop at Rockefeller Conference Centre, in Bellagio, Italy in May 2010, two commissioned essays from Indian scholars; and Stephen Cohen\u2019s long essay on future of Pakistan. Cohen says that the \u2018strategy was to approach the question of \u201cWhither Pakistan\u201d? from several perspectives.\u2019 \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Besides, some known American and European South-Asia experts, the scholars from India and Pakistan that have contributed to the book include Kanti Bajpai, Mohan Gurswmay, Bahuktumbi Raman, Anita M Weiss,\u00a0 Tariq Fatemi, Shuja Nawaz, Shaukat Qadir, Hasan Askari Rizvi, Aqil Shah, Moeed W Yusuf and others.<\/p>\n

Pakistan for donkeys\u2019 years has been most important ally of United States in South Asia till it was recently \u2018replaced by India\u2019, but this country is little understood in Washington. \u2018There are no think tanks with programs dedicated to the study of Pakistan or Institutes for studies of Pakistan in America.\u2019 \u00a0Bruce Riedel, a former US spymaster and author of controversial book, \u2018Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and future of Global Jihad, in his foreword to the book writes, \u00a0\u201cPakistan is almost always grouped with its larger neighbor, India, in South Asia programs. This is understandable, given their common heritage in the British Empire, but it often means Pakistan takes a back seat to its bigger and richer neighbor in American studies. That is a shame; Pakistan is an extremely important country in its own right. If geography had placed it somewhere else, it would be seen as one of the emerging critical nations of twenty first century, but geography puts it in the shadow of India. It needs more attention\u201d. \u00a0The brief forward quite incisively sums up the US and Pakistan relations. The United States has largely been responsible for \u00a0not allowing democratic roots to strike in Pakistan, it has been \u2018embracing all four Pakistani General who ruled Pakistan, from President Kennedy to Bush have invited them for consultation.<\/p>\n

In his \u00a069 pages long chapter \u201cPakistan: Arrival and Departures,\u201d \u00a0Stephen Cohen, known Pakistan basher, debates at length the challenges facing the country, \u00a0\u00a0\u201coriginally intended by its great leader Mohammad Ali Jinnah, to transforms the lives of British Indian Muslims by providing them a\u00a0 homeland sheltered from Hindu oppression\u201d.\u00a0 He analysis, \u00a0\u00a0the threats to its integrity from militants within and outside. Debating on\u00a0 complex subjects such as \u2018civil or military authoritarianism\u2019, democratic consolidation\u2019, \u2018parallel Pakistanis\u2019, \u2018external and global factors\u2019, he very subtly states suggests that so far army remains integrated, \u201cIt is misleading to talk of \u00a0breakaway of discontented province and the breakup of the states, or total state failure, within the next five years. Those who predict such a future soon are patently unaware of Pakistan\u2019s resiliency and capabilities, even if this is failing along many dimensions.\u201d Stephen\u2019s, these remarks in fact strengthens the narrative that emanate from Maleeha Lodhi\u2019s recent book, Pakistan Beyond Crisis State, published in India by Rupa. The book by Stephen Cohen with inputs from India and Pakistan scholars gives a diverse perspective and provides an insight into the contemporary political scenario and the situation likely to emerge but what made book more gripping for me, was should, I say it inadvertently throwing up a debate on Kashmir. The debate very subtly forewarns about \u00a0\u00a0procrastination of the problem and its dangerous implication for the region. In the \u201cAfterword\u201d of the book Stephen Cohen refers to various studies and analysis\u00a0 carried about situation in South Asia before and after 9\/11. \u00a0\u201cIndia emerging as \u201cunrivaled regional power- including naval and nuclear capabilities- a dynamic and growing\u201d, does not seem auguring well for peace and stability in the region. The study carried by National Intelligence Council, sees \u201cthe widening India-Pakistan gap \u2013 destabilizing in its own right- will be accompanied by deep political, economical and social disparities within States.\u201d\u00a0 Suggesting that the decisive shift in conventional military power in India\u2019s favor over the coming years potentially make the region more volatile and stable the study sees a major conflict between India and Pakistan overshadowing all other regional issues. It also sees turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan \u201cspilling over to Kashmir.\u201d page 285.\u00a0\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It will be hard for any scholar, while debating India-Pakistan relation, or South-Asian security scenario to expunge or strike out Kashmir from the narrative. In his essay titled, \u201cAddressing a Fundamental Challenges\u201d, C. Christine Fair, critical of Pakistan army for its believing that it\u00a0 is\u00a0 the only institution protecting Pakistan.\u00a0 How this belief\u00a0 is woven in Pakistan discourse, he writes, \u201cIndeed Pakistani say that their concern in Afghanistan stems from their fear of India and Pakistan\u2019s issues with India and Kashmir, could be resolved, their need for Afghan Taliban will abate.\u201d \u00a0Blaming India of being \u201cappallingly shortsighted\u201d, Fair writes, \u201cIndia demurs from making any policy regarding Pakistan that may be conciliatory, including by striking a comprehensive settlement between Delhi and Srinagar.\u201d\u00a0 India, he says, \u201cclinging to the notion that its varied elections demonstrate that Kashmir issue is resolved. However, as any visitor to Kashmir can attest, elections have not ameliorated the perverse discontent and dissatisfaction with Delhi, much less provides a path to towards comprehensive reconciliation.\u201d Seeing Kashmir issue having merged with larger \u201cHindu-Muslim discord,\u201d he is critical of New Delhi\u2019s Kashmir policy that harbors on, \u201cwait out, while India ascends\u00a0 and Pakistan weakens.\u201d (Pages 97-98) Some of the authors including Stephen Cohen see Kashmir at the center of Pakistan China relations. Tariq Fatima, in his essay, Looking Ahead, while analyzing genesis of the problems confronting country and its future, does not see Kashmir just as \u201cdisputed territory\u201d but as one that \u201chas impacted the hearts and minds of Pakistan..\u201d Page 107-108.<\/p>\n

The book for its largely being a \u00a0good study on contemporary Pakistan situation and its future, is an important read for students of South-Asian politics<\/p>\n

Z.G. Muhammad<\/p>\n

This article was published in Greater Kashmir on 24 September 2012<\/p>\n<\/fb:like><\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Authors and writers are not prophets.\u00a0 They do not \u2018speak from divine inspiration\u2019 or as \u2018authoritative persons who divine future.\u2019 \u00a0I do not see them even as Statesmen with great political vision, understanding and futuristic judgment.
\nHowever,\u00a0 Scholarly writings and dispassionate studies whether tasteful or distasteful, critical or appreciative, help in understanding complex political situations, resolving intricate political disputes and coercing nations into introspection. One such work that recently caught my imagination has been, \u2018The future of Pakistan\u2019, by Stephen P Cohen and others, published by Oxford University Press, India. 2012\u00a0 In his preface to the book Stephen Cohen writes that, the book has \u2018stemmed from a project that examined Pakistan\u2019s medium term- future, roughly defined as next five to seven years (2011-17). The book comprises fourteen essays presented at workshop at Rockefeller Conference Centre, in Bellagio, Italy in May 2010, two commissioned essays from Indian scholars; and Stephen Cohen\u2019s long …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editors-take"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1181"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1186,"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181\/revisions\/1186"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peacewatchkashmir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}